SVS Early Robin 28/02/2019


  • SVS expects the FTSE100 to open 15 points lower this morning.
     
  • The Pound’s rally continued, reaching a fresh four-month high.
     
  • US stocks remained in the negative for the second consecutive session on Wednesday.
     
  • Asian markets also set to close weaker this morning.
     
  • Trump disarmament talks have finished early in Vietnam with no agreement between the US and North Korea.
     
  • Today’s UK financial updates include a long list of finals from: Avanti Communications, Arrow Global, Aston Martin Lagonda, Bakkavor, Bovis Homes, British American Tobacco, CRH, Diversified Gas & Oil, EVRAZ, Foxtons, Gocompare.Com, Grafton, Gresham House, Hastings, Howden Joinery, Hunting, IDOX, Inchcape, International Consolidated Airlines, Jupiter, Merlin Entertainments, Mondi, National Express, Petrofac, Rentokil Initial, Rolls-Royce, RSA Insurance, Spire Healthcare, STV Group and Vesuvius.
     
 

Global Market Movements

Global Market Indices
FTSE 100 7,107.20 -43.92 -0.61%
FTSE 250 19,153.75 -116.93 -0.61%
Xetra DAX 11,487.33 -53.46 -0.46%
CAC40 5,225.35 -13.37 -0.26%
EuroSTOXX50 372.58 -1.06 -0.28%
Dow Jones 25,985.16 -72.82 -0.28%
Nasdaq 7,554.51 5.21 0.07%
S&P500 2,792.38 -1.52 -0.05%
Nikkei 225* 21,483.01 -74.09 -0.34%
Hang Seng* 28,836.39 84.68 0.29%
Shanghai* 2,953.34 -0.49 0.01%
Sensex50* 36,048.78 143.22 0.39%
Foreign Exchange (Majors)
USD/JPY 110.90 -0.08 -0.08%
EUR/USD 1.1376 0.0005 0.05%
GBP/USD 1.3303 -0.0007 -0.05%
Crude Oil
Nymex 56.88 -0.05 -0.11%
Brent 18.83 0.00 0.00%
Gold (USD/ounce)
Spot 144.00 -1.00 -0.69%
Futures 1,320.10 -1.10 -0.09%
Bond Yields (10 year)
U.S 2.668 -0.0154 -
German 0.149 0.00 -
*figures correct as of (06:00 – GMT)

Today's key Economic/Political events

Time (GMT) Event Expected Previous
00.01 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (Feb) -15 -14
07:00 UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY, Feb) 0.4% 0.1%
13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims (Feb 15) 1.733M 1.725M
13:30 US Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q4) 1.7% 1.5%
13:30 US Core Personal Consumption Expend (QoQ, Q4) 1.6% 1.6%
14:45 US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Feb) 57.0 56.7

Today's Market Call

  • SVS expects the FTSE100 to open 15 points lower this morning as Sterling strength keeps the index in check. European markets remain on nervous ground this morning with concerns regarding the aggressive confrontation between two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan to the fore, as US stocks notched up their second consecutive fall on Wednesday, with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s seemingly downbeat Congressional testimony on the US-China trade negotiations seemingly also unnerved the Asian markets. London ended down 0.6% yesterday with shares in Marks & Spencer closing 12.5% down after it said it would need to raise £600m from investors to fund a joint-venture deal with online grocer Ocado (which ended up almost 3%).
     
  • The Pound’s rally continued, reaching a fresh four-month high of US$1.3337 yesterday while also touching a 21-month peak against the Euro on hopes that a no-deal Brexit might still be avoided. Markets appears willing to reduce their expectation of a 'No-Deal' declaration following PM May’s apparent backtracking, although traders note a possible three-month extension to Article 50 in isolation is not a development that would necessarily provide support to Sterling.
     
  • U.S. stocks remained the negative for the second consecutive session Wednesday, falling marginally as they weighed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s Congressional testimony and a mixed batch of corporate earnings. President Trump’s top trade negotiator noted that more Chinese purchases of U.S. goods are insufficient to conclude a satisfactory trade deal and that it is too early to predict the outcome of ongoing talks between the two countries. With hefty profits already in place this year on positive macro and corporate updates, as the Dow moved within 3% of its 2018’s record high, investors were understandably touch sensitive. Considering best scenarios had possibly already priced in, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, while the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both trod water. The Dow industrials entered Wednesday's session up over 11% for the year and within 3% of last year's record as the US formally abandoned, for now at least, its threat to raise tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods.
     
  • The US trade gap widened in 2018 as President Trump’s administration pushed to reduce it through tariffs and balancing with China. The deficit in goods reached US$79.5 billion at the end of 2018, having widened US$7 billion, or 10%, from a year earlier, the Commerce Department stated on Wednesday.
     
  • Asian markets are set to close weaker this morning amid continuing geopolitical uncertainties. including the outcome from President rump’s summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Japan’s Nikkei fell -0.79% with the Hang Seng down 0.33% in late trading. The Shanghai Composite declined -0.74% on release of China's factory activity date falling to its lowest level in three years, as production was hit by the Lunar New Year holiday and external demand softened and the Kospi tumbled -1.50% weighed by tech stocks as benchmarks in Taiwan and Indonesia also declined.
     
  • Today’s UK financial updates include a long list of finals from: Avanti Communications, Arrow Global, Aston Martin Lagonda, Bakkavor, Bovis Homes, British American Tobacco, CRH, Diversified Gas & Oil, EVRAZ, Foxtons, Gocompare.Com, Grafton, Gresham House, Hastings, Howden Joinery, Hunting, IDOX, Inchcape, International Consolidated Airlines, Jupiter, Merlin Entertainments, Mondi, National Express, Petrofac, Rentokil Initial, Rolls-Royce, RSA Insurance, Spire Healthcare, STV Group and Vesuvius plus interims from Genus and Ricardo, plus a Q3 statement from Amigo Holdings. The stream of US quarterly earnings announcements is drawing to a close now, but still includes: Acadia Healthcare, Autodesk, Cantel Medical, CenterPoint Energy, Edison International, Gap Inc, JC Penny; Marriott International, Nektar Therapeutics, Nielsen Holdings, Nordstrom, NRG Energy and PG&E Corp.
     
 

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